Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmanian Regional Office
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in the Upper Derwent Valley, South East, East Coast and parts of the Western, North East and Midlands Forecast Districts.
Issued at 7:57 pm Thursday, 29 September 2016.
A trough currently lies over Tasmania from Eddystone Point (larapuna) to Strahan. A small but deep low associated with this trough is expected to form near the east coast later this evening and will slowly move southwards along the coast overnight tonight and Friday morning. Damaging northeasterly wind gusts and heavy rainfall are expected to occur on the southern side of the trough and low. The trough is expected to stall near a line from Bicheno to Low Rocky Point around midnight, then slowly track southwards again around sunrise tomorrow.
DAMAGING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS averaging 60 to 70 km/h, with peak gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are expected about the east, and the southeast coastal fringes. Winds will tend more easterly overnight then contract to the far south by around midday Friday.
Winds are also expected to bring northeasterly swells up to 5 metres to the east coast.
HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is forecast in the east this evening and is expected to move over the southeast Friday morning around sunrise, contracting to the far south around midday.
24 hour rainfall totals of 60 to 80mm are possible about the east and southeast, with in excess of 100 mm possible about elevated areas, however rainfall is heavily dependant on the exact position of the low and that is very uncertain at this stage.
Rivulets around Hobart (and elsewhere in the east and southeast) may rise rapidly Friday morning and afternoon.
Currently, the heaviest rain is in the northeast. Rain in the remainder of the north has begun to ease and will mostly clear this evening.
Locations which may be affected include Hobart, St Helens, Swansea, New Norfolk, Geeveston and Dover.
Severe weather is no longer occurring in the Furneaux Islands, North West Coast, Central North and Central Plateau districts and the warning for these districts is CANCELLED.
Since 9am, the highest reported rainfall has been 86mm at Fisher River, followed by 84mm at Mount Victoria. Sheffield has had 61mm.
The strongest gust recorded in the last 12 hours was 113 k/hr at Tasman Island. Maria Island reported a gust of 94 k/hr this afternoon.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Supervise children closely.
* Check that family and neighbours are aware of warnings.
* Manage pets and livestock.
* Secure outdoor items including furniture and play equipment.
* Be prepared in case of power outages.
* Beware of damaged trees and power lines and take care when driving.
* Clear drains and gutters on premises prior to severe weather arriving.
* Do not walk, ride or drive through flood waters.
* Listen to the ABC radio or check www.ses.tas.gov.au for further advice.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132500.
The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11pm Thursday.